Parameterization-Driven Uncertainties in Single-Forcing, Single-Model Wave Climate Projections from a CMIP6-Derived Dynamic Ensemble

This study is focused on the impact of different parameterizations in state-of-the art wave model WAVEWATCH3 (WW3) describing present climate and future projections. We have used a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)-derived single-wind forcing (from EC-EARTH) to produce dynamic wind-wave ensemble for its historic (1995–2014) (2081–2100) periods. discuss uncertainty due (intra-model uncertainty) simulating climate. The historical runs were compared against ERA5 reanalysis found be good agreement significant height. gives degree confidence investigate intra-model WW3 using available physics packages such as ST2, ST3, ST4, ST6. In general, period, ST3 ST4 perform better tropics whereas ST6 performs extratropics, based M-Score performance assessment. also reveals that extratropical South Indian Ocean tropical eastern Pacific areas exhibit larger amount uncertainty, mainly induced by ST2 package. results this shed new light impacts associated with use multiple ensembles, an issue has not received necessary attention scientific literature.